Is Putin losing friends in Central Asia?

 Europe

Russia has to reassess its relations with the outside world around the war in Ukraine.  Western countries, including the United States, are trying to isolate Moscow by imposing various sanctions.  Many countries are neutral rather than opposing the Russian operation in Ukraine.  In the meantime, there are referendums in four regions controlled by Moscow in Ukraine and Russian President Vladimir Putin's announcement of 'partial military deployment'.  In such a situation, according to many political analysts, the distance between Moscow and the Central Asian countries of the former Soviet Union is increasing.  Those countries are considered close allies of Moscow.

Kazakhstan is one of the Central Asian countries.  Many Russian citizens are fleeing the country to avoid fighting after Putin announced a partial military deployment.  According to the calculations of the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Kazakhstan, about 100,000 Russian citizens have entered the country since September 21.  President of Kazakhstan Kasim-Jomart Tokayev said last Tuesday that most of the Russian citizens are leaving the country because of the current situation.

 In January this year, the Kremlin sent several hundred troops of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) to the country to quell protests against President Tokayev.  However, after the start of the Russia-Ukraine war, the distance between the two countries is quite clear.

The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan announced last Monday that they will not recognize the referendum organized by the Kremlin in Ukraine.  Voting took place in Ukraine's Kherson, Zaporizhzhya, Luhansk and Donetsk for five days from last Friday.  Local authorities said the region had voted in favor of joining Russia.

A similar response came from Kazakhstan last June.  At that time, President Tokayev told Putin that Kazakhstan will not support the independence that Moscow has recognized for Luhansk and Donetsk regions of Ukraine.

 Many Russian citizens have also gone to Kazakhstan's neighboring Uzbekistan.  The country's government has been more cautious than Kazakhstan in disagreeing with or challenging Putin's decisions.  Uzbekistani President Savkat Mirziyoyev has so far neither supported nor condemned the Russian operation in Ukraine.  However, he dismissed the country's foreign minister, Abdul Aziz Komilov.  Komilov said last March that Tashkent would not recognize areas in Ukraine controlled by pro-Moscow separatists.  However, none of the Central Asian countries have yet stepped forward to recognize the self-proclaimed Luhansk and Donetsk republics.

 Alisher Ilkhamov, director of London-based research institute Due Diligence Central Asia, said that Tashkent has been silent so far.  It seems that the country's president is afraid of losing relations with Moscow.

Many Uzbek citizens work in Russia.  However, the country's government issued an order on September 23 banning Uzbek citizens from joining the war.  It also indicates a distancing of relations towards Moscow.

 Not only Uzbekistan, but also citizens of many former Soviet Union countries worked as laborers in Russia.  Sometimes, they are heavily harassed by Moscow.  Sent back to home country.  Some experts believe that this is a strategy of the Kremlin to put pressure on the countries' governments.

 Meanwhile, Turkmenistan has been outside Moscow's political circle for several years.

 They have also closed their border with Russia.  However, in the remaining two countries of Central Asia, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, Moscow has political and economic dominance.  But they too have neither supported nor criticized the Russia-Ukraine war.  Despite opposition from the Russian government, people fleeing the country are taking shelter in both countries.

 For the first time in history, many dissident Russian citizens are being sheltered by Central Asian countries.  However, many observers find it difficult to predict whether this will result in any change in the balance of power between Moscow and the region.  The long-term economic impact is also difficult to estimate, according to Temur Umarov, an expert at the Russian research institute Carnegie Politics.

 This expert told Al-Jazeera, it seems that certain financial indicators may increase in the short term as Russian citizens come to Central Asian countries.  But in the long run they will become a burden.  Because, it is still not sure how they will adapt in these countries, and how they will find a job without help from others.